I have worked with Ruffalo Noel Levitz, Maguire Associates, and Hardwick Day (now EAB). They all follow a similar process.
- Start with the big picture
- Take 3-5 years of data and look at the numbers in the aggregate
- Calculate the highs and lows
- Do a Monte Carlo simulation to determine the most likely data ranges (80% or other acceptable confidence level)
- Perform scenario planning using the above as upper and lower bounds
- So it in person
- Include all necessary parties